Seeing the Forest for the Trees: Presidential Election Forecasts and the Fundamentals

Modern presidential election campaigns generate a massive amount of news. This has never been more true than for this year’s campaign, an especially intense open-seat election campaign conducted with the parties near parity, with both an electorate and party system highly polarized, and with a pair of highly controversial and generally not-well-thought-of contenders. Every twist and turn, real and imagined, is reported and exhaustingly scrutinized. Even dedicated political junkies may feel overwhelmed by the hourly onslaught of election information as the political world churns.

Read more: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/seeing-the-forest-for-the-trees-presidential-election-forecasts-and-the-fundamentals/

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