Seeing the Forest for the Trees: Presidential Election Forecasts and the Fundamentals

Modern presidential election campaigns generate a massive amount of news. This has never been more true than for this year’s campaign, an especially intense open-seat election campaign conducted with the parties near parity, with both an electorate and party system highly polarized, and with a pair of highly controversial and generally not-well-thought-of contenders. Every twist and turn, real and imagined, is reported and exhaustingly scrutinized. Even dedicated political junkies may feel overwhelmed by the hourly onslaught of election information as the political world churns.

Read more: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/seeing-the-forest-for-the-trees-presidential-election-forecasts-and-the-fundamentals/

Presumed Democratic Nominee?

As the spring semester was winding down, so did posting here. However, we wanted to share the latest developments on the Democratic Presidential primary with you. See NPR’s coverage:
http://www.npr.org/2016/06/06/481020591/why-hillary-clinton-will-be-called-the-presumptive-nominee?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=npr&utm_term=nprnews&utm_content=20160606

Bernie & WV

Winning in West Virginia didn’t change Bernie Sanders’ chances of winning the Democratic nomination. Donald Trump is more popular when poll respondents don’t have to talk to another person. And there are substantial demographic divides in support for Hillary Clinton vs. Trump. Read more here:http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/bernie-sanders-west-virginia-primary_us_573321e4e4b016f378979da1

Hillary v Donald

What are the possible outcomes for the November 2016 presidential election? NPR provides an analysis:http://www.npr.org/2016/05/10/477190080/demographics-and-history-tilt-the-map-in-clintons-favor-over-trump?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=npr&utm_term=nprnews&utm_content=20160510

The changing voter demographics

The U.S. population as a whole, and therefore the demographics of voters, has been changing over the last generation. Part of that change includes the growth of the Latino population in the United States, along with Latino voters. Below you can read a piece on the intersection of ethnicity and gender and how that might mobilize one component of voters in the upcoming presidential election:

Guest Voz: 2016 election – the ‘Perfect Storm’ for bringing out Latina voters

Acela primaries & the presidency

We had yet another Super Tuesday earlier this week where Trump and Clinton added to their respective leads. For more, see:http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/27/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-general-election/

More than half of American voters believe that the system U.S. political parties use to pick their candidates for the White House is “rigged” and more than two-thirds want to see the process changed, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll. For more, read:http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0XO0ZR

The New York Primary Elections

Clinton (D) and Trump (R) won the NY primary elections earlier this week. Here is a recap of primary election results.

You can examine how neighborhoods voting in both primary elections via the NY Times:http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/04/19/us/elections/new-york-city-democratic-primary-results.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur#10/40.7100/-73.9800

You can read about the voters removed from the voter rolls in Brooklyn here: http://www.npr.org/2016/04/19/474896027/after-more-than-100-000-voters-dropped-in-brooklyn-city-officials-call-for-actio?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=npr&utm_term=nprnews&utm_content=20160419